No Sanctions Relief For Iran

Good morning! Here’s the latest in trending:

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Hopes of progress in the U.S.-Iran negotiations are fading as both sides remain far apart on key issues. Adding to the pessimism is President Donald Trump rejecting a media report of him possibly offering Iran sanctions relief for nuclear concessions.

No dice: Trump was said to be open to easing sanctions on Iran and unfreezing Iranian assets if Tehran delivered verifiable concessions on its nuclear program, according to the report, which cited a U.S. official. “This is untrue,” Trump posted on Truth Social. “I offered them NOTHING!” He said the report is “a HOAX” and called for the immediate withdrawal of “this fake story.” The report came after Trump over the weekend rejected Iran’s latest proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, casting doubts over any diplomatic breakthrough. The U.S. continues to demand that Iran agree to nuclear concessions while Iran wants talks to focus on the Strait of Hormuz and the U.S. naval blockade. Diplomatic efforts are continuing through mediators, with special envoy Steve Witkoff, Jared Kushner, Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio leading negotiations on the U.S. side.

Talks falter: UN Ambassador Mike Waltz characterized Iran’s latest proposal as “a pretty cynical attempt to put something on the table that they knew was unacceptable,” arguing Tehran was “asking for everything up front with a promise that they would then talk.” Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian recently told CBS News that both sides first need to agree on reopening the Strait of Hormuz. “Then we can sit down at the negotiating table and discuss other issues at hand,” he said. Pezeshkian affirmed that Iran has no intention of developing nuclear weapons. “We’re still engaging in dialogue and we’re still making our demands within the framework of international law,” he noted. “We’re not seeking war. War was imposed on us.” Given the rhetoric from both sides, prediction-market traders remain skeptical that a comprehensive U.S.-Iran nuclear deal can be reached before 2028.

Iraq exit: In other news, the U.S. military will fully withdraw from Iraq by Wednesday, marking the end of its more than two-decade-long presence in the country following the American-led overthrow of Saddam Hussein in 2003. Washington and Baghdad agreed to wind down the remaining U.S. military operations in Iraq back in 2024. But experts are worried that the U.S. exit could benefit Iran and its allies. “Iran stands to benefit strategically from the coalition’s departure because it removes a military presence that for years acted as a counterweight to Tehran’s influence in Iraq,” Jasim al-Bahadli, Iraqi security analyst, told Reuters. During the Iran war this year, Tehran-backed militia groups in Iraq have targeted U.S. military facilities in the region, with seven U.S. service members killed in Iraq. To note, Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi pledged to disarm Iran-backed militias in the country by June 2027.

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Today’s Markets

In Asia, Japan -0.6%. Hong Kong -0.5%. China +0.2%. India -0.3%.
In Europe, at midday, London +0.4%. Paris +0.2%. Frankfurt +0.5%.
Futures at 6:30, Dow -0.1%. S&P flat. Nasdaq +0.1%. Crude -0.7% to $92.10. Gold +0.3% to $4,181.10. Bitcoin +1.4% to $83,978.
Ten-year Treasury Yield -1 bp to 5.23%.

On The Calendar

Companies reporting today include Carnival (CCL) and CarMax (KMX).

See the full earnings calendar on Seeking Alpha, as well as today’s economic calendar.