Prediction market traders think the U.S. added more jobs in September than economists estimate

Prediction market traders are expecting another strong jobs report on Friday. 

Following August’s bigger-than-expected employment report — where the U.S. added 162,000 jobs during the month — traders on prediction market platform Kalshi think there’s a 60% chance the country added more than 90,000 jobs during September. 

Speculators also think there’s almost 50-50 odds that the report is once again in six figures. That’s higher than the Dow Jones consensus economist consensus forecast of 84,000. 

On the contracts, traders are asked whether they think the U.S. added more than a certain number of jobs in the month. The market and its contracts are resolved using official data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. 

Traders on Polymarket also think there’s about 50-50 odds the September jobs report is in the six figure range. The contracts on Polymarket are resolved the same way as on Kalshi. 

While the labor market earlier in the summer showed signs of weakness, August’s jobs report showed it rebounding. It also gave monetary policymakers at the Federal Reserve greater cover to focus on its inflation mandate, which remains above target, and raise interest rates at its September meeting.  

The September employment report is set to be delivered on Friday at 8:30 a.m. Before that, ADP’s national employment report will be released on Wednesday at 8:15 a.m. ET. 

Disclosure: CNBC and Kalshi have a commercial relationship that includes customer acquisition and a minority investment.